USDA trimmed beef production forecasts in Friday's September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, cutting 2026 output by 90 million pounds and 2027 by 145 million pounds. Total 2026 beef production now stands at 24.877 billion pounds, down 4.3 percent from 2025.
Despite the production cut, USDA lowered its price forecast, projecting third-quarter steers at $230 per hundredweight (down $12 from August) and fourth-quarter at $225 (down $20). The agency raised 2026 beef imports 130 million pounds to 6.262 billion pounds, with tighter domestic supply being offset by increased foreign product rather than higher cash prices.
The report signals a tightening U.S. cattle supply through 2027, which could support ranch-direct pricing as consumers look for alternatives to imported beef. Per capita beef consumption is projected to hold near 59 pounds despite the production decline.